My Predictions for 2011
By Emma.
Here are 11 predictions for 2011 (with some explanation to make it vaguely interesting!). I promise to come back and mark myself honestly this time next year…
1. Ed will still be leader of the Labour Party. Of course he will, we don’t have the money, the stomach or the suicidal insanity to re-fight that fight. That won’t stop the bitching or the briefing but as what most people know becomes ever clear to those who can’t quite see it yet, these will subside.
2. Labour will remain – in aggregate – ahead in the polls. There will be times when we are quite far ahead, and times when the Tories spike. We should treat these imposters both the same. We are a nose ahead and should fight accordingly.
3. Labour will win Oldham East & Saddleworth, but it will be close. In the end, not enough Tories will switch to compensate for the loss of Lib Dem voters to push the Lib Dems over the line. The Libs could possibly have won this with a different candidate, but that we will never know.
4. Labour and the Greens will be the big winners in the local elections, both increasing their numbers significantly at the expense of the Lib Dems.
5. The AV referendum will be closer than I once thought it would be, but it will be lost. I just don’t think enough of the public care enough. I know I don’t – I’m a hack and I don’t even know which way I’ll vote.
6. The coalition will hold, but will falter briefly as after the AV & local election losses, Lib Dems see their polling number increase to about 12-15%. There will be some agitation from the left of the Lib Dems that that’s as good as it’s going to get and they should take that opportunity to leave. The leadership will tough it out. They will succeed in doing so as unless there is a new war, the totemic issues for the left have already been capitulated on.
7. This will strengthen the Tory right and Cameron will have to give them something. It probably won’t be hunting as the polling and imagery is too bad, it probably can’t be Europe, so I suspect there will be something on either tax cuts or immigration or both.
8. Gove will be reshuffled into a role he can’t screw up so publically.
9. There will be at least two more cabinet resignations, and at least one will be a big beast. Neither will be Vince Cable who missed his chance to make a difference, and is nicely neutered as far as Clegg and the Tories are concerned.
10. The 10% cut to Housing Benefit will be dropped from the Welfare Bill.The Lib Dems will claim this as a victory despite a lot of the other pernicious stuff that will remain.
11. There will be at least one quarter of negative GDP and unemployment will rise.
Friday, December 31st 2010 at 14:58
Hi Emma, love your predictions! Agree with all even though I am at the moment leaning towards a yes vote in AV. I would love to ask you a question and wondered whether you could send me your email address. It is about the May elections.
Happy healthy and inspiring New Year to you.
Marg x
Friday, December 31st 2010 at 15:08
1.Yes,
2.Yes,
3.Don’t think it will be close,
4.Don’t think Greens will benefit from LD collapse/voter disillusionment. Lucas has been almost invisible. More likely Independents (including ex-LDs) and more local issue party’s will absorb votes.
5.Agree – people don’t care enough, but this may allow for victory by Yes campaign as they are more likely to rally troops. Hope not!
6.They’ll hang on by their fingertips. I suspect Cameron (if not Clegg) already has Autumn 2012 in mind for election if Olympics go well.
7.Immigration is my guess.
8.Yes
9.Possibly. Right about Cable – he had his chance and now is finished. Might be moved in reshuffle?
10.Probably – maybe always a plan – “listening to people’s concerns” and all that crap.
11.Unfortunately.
Friday, December 31st 2010 at 19:22
Sadly agree, the coalition will hold. Clegg certainly seems to have been taken over by the spirit of Thatcher, and many Lib-Dems still in shock. Really many many more should have left the party than have. Some dont quite understand that they are now the Tories. Others in denial.
Vince is very nicely neutered, though dont think he ever was “leftish” as some think. He was one of the contributers to the orange book, free markets and all that.
AV, probabally lost, vast amounts of disinterest in it from what I can see on internet and from talking to people. Anyone with fight and energy is doing other things. So much else to do.
Who/which parties will benefit from sinking of Lib dems?
As a Green I hope the Green Party will. Green Party have always been against cuts and along witht the Unions and others have presented many alternatives. Wish Labour Party would join in. Think Labour activists will, but leadership wont.
Caroline Lucas certainly has not been “almost invisible” as well as being in house of commons, doing her job there, shes been supporting the students on protests, challenging heavy handed policing…where was Ed? He had something else on..apparantly.
Agree media dont give Caroline or Greens coverage deserved, but thats life in a small party.
I hope that activists in all parties will put aside differences and support all the protests in whatever way is possible. Hope that will be the big story for the new year. As someone who had a free education, a full grant, no fees, really cant understand others who had same having the gall to vote for fees.
Wednesday, January 5th 2011 at 16:31
Nice post, Emma. Couple of thoughts:
1. Ed will be there but not sure the bitching will subside – for that to happen, I think he will either need to come out with a barnstorming policy program which pulls everyone along or take some ruthless steps to pull dissenters into line.
2. Fight accordingly: I hope this means take nothing for granted. In fact, I would rather we fought as if we were doing really badly, i.e. ignoring the positive polls completely.
Sunday, January 9th 2011 at 22:07
1. Perhaps – it all depends on events, and if the of party carry on endlessly briefing against him. Strange as we were all implored to ‘think of party unity’ when Gordon was ‘elected’, but it’s OK if the centre right carry on undermining Ed. My guess is he won’t go this year, but in the second quarter of next year if the expected ‘breakthrough’ doesn’t occur
2. Again, perhaps. Support will spike when the cuts really begin to bite, but the Tories will spend months – years even – blaming this on the Labour party toxic legacy. And a goodly proportion of the electorate sadly believe them.
3. It’s closer than we think – remember, the ConDems can still ‘tar’ us with the brush of Phil Woolas. But you’re right about the choice of candidate. A less scrupulous group would have parachuted in a celeb or high profile candidate to fight this.
4. No, I have to disagree with this – I think Labour will make modest gains – and so we should given the abysmal prior performance in the previous cycle. I don’t think the Greens have a cohesive national organisation and political will to be ‘the big winners’ in the local elections. I do agree the Lib Dems will be the overall losers.
5. I’m not going to let my own personal views (in favour of PR, but not the AV model, and certainly not tied to the ConDem gerrymander) influence this but the Libs could swing this. Of course, if they don’t, that rather ruins it for the next 4 years for them
6. I agree the coalition will probably hold; the main reason being that the Libs would be wiped put if we went to the polls now. There’s a real danger, I think, that the Tories will realise there’s a real possibility that, if they choose their time right, they can ditch the Lib Dems and win an election, particularly if the Labour Party isn’t prepared for an election. And it quite clearly isn’t, given the lack of party unity outlined in 1. for instance.
7. What can the Tories realistically ‘give’ on immigration; the right of the Tory Party’s main concern is legal immigration from the A10 countries, and, short of withdrawing from the EU – which a good proportion would be happy to do so – there’s not much more they can do. I go with tax cuts being the big vote winner.
8. I think Gove will stay where he is. Sadly. I think the Tories will try and sneak a higher amount of selection and/or new Grammar schools as a sop to the traditionalists
9. I think Vince will go after a ‘decent’ interval – probably next May.
10. I wish I could be as optimistic as you – I think the 10% cut to Housing Benefit will stay.
11. Unemployment will certainly rise, given the number of local government staff being given the heave ho, and no jobs created to absorb them.
Friday, January 14th 2011 at 14:04
3. I’m giving myself half a point. We won, but in the end it wasn’t that close (a straw poll I took said that anything under 1000 would count as close).